The Rubric
Six criteria, each scored 0–5 (max 30). Weighted equally — adjust based on what you care about most.
| # | Criterion | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Exp | Relevant Experience | Executive or legislative track record in governance — especially CA or federal — at a scale comparable to running a $300B state |
| 2 · Policy | Policy Substance | Specificity, internal consistency, and feasibility of the platform. Vague slogans score low; named programs with funding mechanisms score high |
| 3 · Coalition | Coalition & Endorsements | Breadth and depth of institutional support: legislators, labor, mayors, congressional delegation |
| 4 · Viability | Statewide Viability | Polling, fundraising, name recognition, and geographic/demographic reach. Can they actually win? |
| 5 · Vision | Vision for CA's "Big Five" | A coherent plan on the projected $35B structural deficit, housing/homelessness, wildfires, federal hostility from the Trump admin, and cost of living |
| 6 · Character | Character & Judgment | Ethics record, temperament, scandals, and how they've handled past crises |
S 24–30 · Frontrunner, competent, broad coalition
A 18–23 · Credible major candidate
B 12–17 · Real credentials but low viability
C 6–11 · Minor, niche, or fringe
D 0–5 · Vanity, perennial, or joke candidate
A note up front: I have detailed public records for roughly 15 candidates. The other 45+ are mostly first-time or perennial candidates with thin public footprints — I've tiered them based on what's available but haven't scored them line by line. That's an honest reflection of the information environment, not laziness.
S Tier S — Frontrunners
The field is too fragmented for any candidate to clearly sit in S tier. Hilton, Bianco, Porter, Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Mahan are all bunched in upper-A.
A Tier A — Credible Major Candidates
Katie Porter
D
23 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
3-term US Rep, UC Irvine law prof, Warren protégé. Clear platform on consumer protection, denser housing near transit, middle-class tax cuts, corporate tax increases. Endorsed by Warren, several CA House Dems, Teamsters CA, UAW Region 6. Polling consistently 11–14%. Knock: some staff-treatment criticism from her 2024 Senate run; also a fairly thin executive record.
Xavier Becerra
D
23 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
US HHS Secretary (2021–25), CA Attorney General (2017–21), 12-term Congressman. Anti-Trump bona fides — sued the first Trump administration 120+ times. Multiple House Dem endorsements, Latino caucus support. Rising fast post-Swalwell collapse but still trailing in raw polling (~4–6%). Knock: recent allegations around a campaign-account siphoning scheme involving a former aide; under sustained attack from Steyer's ad spend.
Antonio Villaraigosa
D
23 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
LA Mayor (2005–13), former Assembly Speaker, second gubernatorial run. Deepest CA governance résumé in the field. Endorsed by Karen Bass, Barbara Boxer, building trades unions, Cruz Bustamante, large local-official roster. Specific platform on homebuyer assistance and an immigration-enforcement task force. Polling 3–5%. Knock: 2007 affair and old political baggage still come up; couldn't break through in 2018.
Matt Mahan
D
21 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
San Jose Mayor since 2023. Tightest, most specific platform of the Dem field: tiny-home strategy on unsheltered homelessness, pay-for-performance for officials, gas-tax suspension, no new taxes. Endorsed by Rick Caruso, Sam Liccardo. Made the major TV debate via the Grose qualifying formula despite low polling. Knock: short résumé, modest statewide name ID.
Steve Hilton
R
20 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Former Cameron advisor, former Fox host. Trump-endorsed, with McClintock, Kiley, Voight, Ramaswamy. Polling 14–17% — at or near the lead. Platform: suspend environmental regs, middle-class income tax cuts, open natural land for single-family housing. Knock: zero US elected experience; running California is not running a UK PM's policy unit or a cable show.
Chad Bianco
R
19 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Riverside County Sheriff since 2018. Polling 12–23% — co-leading. Backed by Issa, Calvert, Bono, much of the CA GOP delegation, and several celebrity figures (Lorenzo Lamas, Royce Gracie, Dan Henderson, John Ratzenberger). Platform: eliminate income tax and gas tax, suspend environmental regs, overturn sanctuary law, boost oil/gas. Knock: past Oath Keepers ties, lawsuits and a state investigation over deaths in Riverside jails, narrow law-enforcement frame for a governorship.
Tom Steyer
D
18 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Billionaire hedge fund founder, 2020 presidential candidate. No elected office. Climate-forward platform; endorsed by John Podesta, Ali Zaidi, Bill McKibben, Sierra Club. Spending massive sums — viability is bought, not earned. Polling 8–10%. Knock: aggressive negative-ad strategy against Becerra has drawn criticism; hedge-fund background cuts against populist messaging.
Tony Thurmond
D
18 / 30
| Exp | Policy | Coalition | Viability | Vision | Character |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
State Superintendent of Public Instruction since 2019, former Assembly member. Furthest left of the Dem field — supports a one-time billionaire wealth tax to backfill federal Medi-Cal cuts. Endorsed by Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee, California Faculty Association. Polling 1–3%. Knock: management criticism at CDE; limited statewide traction.
B Tier B — Real Credentials, Limited Viability
Meaningful experience but polling at or near zero with little realistic path.
- Betty Yee (D) — Former CA Controller (2015–23). Withdrew and endorsed Steyer; name remains on ballot. Would be A-tier if active.
- Eric Swalwell (D) — US Rep since 2013. Was leading the Dem field until April 2026 allegations from multiple women (including one rape allegation). Effectively withdrawn; name remains on ballot. Disqualified on Character grounds; do not vote for.
- Ian Calderon (D) — Former Assembly Majority Leader (2016–20). Polling 0–1%.
- Michael Younger (D) — VP at Calbright College, former CA Labor & Workforce Development Agency deputy secretary. Polling <1%.
- Ethan Agarwal (D) — Tech entrepreneur, no elected experience but credible business background.
- Butch Ware (Green) — Associate professor, 2024 Green VP nominee. Endorsed by Nina Turner. Polling ~2%.
- David Serpa (R) — Real estate businessman, 2024 CA-39 runner-up.
C Tier C — Minor or Niche Candidates
On the ballot but with minimal coalition, fundraising, or name recognition. Most poll at 0–1% or are not polled at all.
- Ché Ahn (R) — Pastor, Bethel-affiliated; religious-right platform
- Brandon Jones (R) — Marketing agency founder
- Daniel Mercuri (R) — Author, repeat governor candidate (2021, 2022)
- Leo Zacky (R) — Zacky Farms VP, repeat governor candidate
- Jon Slavet (R) — Tech entrepreneur
- Sophia Brink — Legislative aide
- Zoltan Istvan (D) — Transhumanist Party founder, perennial candidate
- Art Olivier (L) — Former Bellflower mayor
- Tom Woodard (L) — Retired CEO
- Margaret Trowe (NPP) — Hotel worker
- Mohammad Arif (P&F) — Peace and Freedom candidate
- Serge Fiankan (I) — Independent
- Larry Azevedo (D), Sophia Edum-a-Sam (D), Derek Grasty (D) — Local-level or first-time candidates
D Tier D — Vanity, Perennial, or No Realistic Path
First-time candidates with no public platform, perennial candidates with no traction, or filings that read as protest/vanity entries. Not named individually because (a) the information environment is genuinely thin, and (b) the rubric doesn't distinguish meaningfully between them — they all score 0–5 on viability and most criteria. This bucket accounts for the bulk of the gap between the ~20 candidates with public records and the full 61 on the ballot.
How to Use This
- If you only have 30 seconds, the realistic primary contest is between six people: Hilton, Bianco, Porter, Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Mahan. Most polls have been pointing toward Hilton or Bianco taking one spot, with the Democratic vote splintered across the other five-plus.
- If a criterion matters more to you than the others, reweight. If "Vision for the Big Five" is what you care about, the field looks different than if you weight "Viability" heaviest. The numbers above assume equal weighting.
- Don't take "viability" as destiny. California Democratic leaders are encouraging late voting precisely because the picture keeps shifting; Swalwell's collapse upended the field in April.
- Caveats. These ratings reflect publicly available information as of mid-May 2026, lean on reporting from CalMatters, KQED, KPBS, the LA Times, Politico, and Wikipedia, and represent my best descriptive read — not an endorsement. Reasonable people will score these differently, especially on policy and vision, where values do a lot of the work.